DECISION POINT: In a Tournament with blinds at 2,000/4,000 and a 4,000 big blind ante you are the short stack with 8♥8♠ in the Big Blind. It folds to the Button with a 12BB stack who raises to 2.5BBs and the Small Bind with a 9BB stack calls. Action is on you, what do you do?

PRO ANSWER: We are in the Big Blind and are dealt 8♥8♠ in a large field multi-table tournament. The blinds are 2,000/4,000 with a 4,000 big blind ante. There is a mix of shorter stacks and medium stacks at the table and we are one of the short stacks with only 9 big blinds. Action folds around to the Button who makes a raise to 10,000, the Small Blind flat calls with only 36,000 total, and it's our move.

This is a tricky spot to analyze from a theory perspective. The Button really shouldn’t have a range of hands they would open to 2.5BBs here given that with a 12BB stack to start the hand they should be playing a push or fold strategy with their entire range. This is a spot where any player specific information that helps tip our decision can be crucial.

Raising to 2.5BBs instead of shoving is likely a betting pattern tell and can mean different things from specific opponents given the short starting stacks. For some players, this 2.5BB open raise may represent a strong range that is trying to entice action, while for others this raise-sizing can be a weak attempt at a steal while trying to minimize any potential losses.

Unfortunately we don’t have any reliable player specific information on our opponents so we’ll have to analyze this decision in a vacuum.

If we start by assuming that the Button is raising with the entire range of hands they should be shoving all-in with this spot, it looks like a first-in range including all pairs, Ax, broadway except JTo, and K5s+/Q9s+/J9s+/T9s/K9o. The Small Blind’s calling range is somewhat loose and is skewed toward pairs and suited connectors. Running these ranges in a simulation, we see that 88 has a positive expectation of .72 BBs and is a clear shove.

In a worst case scenario where the Button has a range that might be trying to entice action like 88+/ATs+/ATo+ our expectation goes down to only .19BBs, which is still profitable but not quite as clear a shove as before. If the Button is somehow opening a range even tighter than that and only raising first-in with TT+/AQ+ then our pocket eights have an expectation of only 0.14BBs.

Given the dynamics of this table and stack sizes it’s also important to account for table factors. For example, we may opt to pass on this spot to preserve future positive EV shoving opportunities if we’ve observed opponents aren’t calling vs short stack shoves correctly and it’s likely action will fold to us first to act in future situations where we can pick up chips by open shoving.

Additionally, if you can identify through confirmed showdowns that the Button is opening a very narrow range in this spot, folding may also be the correct play. Flat calling is in no circumstances the best option here, regardless of any table factors or reads.

In this scenario we don’t have any compelling reads. Given the default that the Button is opening 2.5BBs with the same range they should be shoving, moving all-in over the top with our eights is the best play.

Moving all-in is the best play.